Beijing [China], January 18 : China's population continued its downward trend for the third consecutive year, with deaths surpassing the slight rise in births, raising concerns over the nation's long-term demographic and economic outlook, as reported by the Taipei Times.
According to the latest data from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, the population declined by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion in 2024, down from 1.409 billion in 2023, the Taipei Times reported.
This marks the third year of population contraction, a shift that experts warn could accelerate in the years ahead.
While births increased modestly from 9.02 million in 2023 to 9.54 million last year, the number of deaths also decreased slightly, from 11.1 million in 2023 to 10.93 million in 2024. Despite the uptick in births, the overall birth rate remains low, rising to 6.77 births per 1,000 people, up from 6.39 per 1,000 in the previous year, the Taipei Times reported.
According to the Taipei Times, the population decline is largely attributed to the legacy of the one-child policy, which was enforced from 1980 until 2015, and its lasting effects on China's demographic structure. Although the policy officially ended in 2016 and families were allowed to have up to three children by 2021, economic factors such as high living costs, stagnant wages, youth unemployment, and societal expectations on women have discouraged many young people from starting families.
By the end of the century, the number of women of reproductive age in China, defined by the UN as ages 15 to 49, is projected to decline by more than two-thirds, falling to under 100 million. At the same time, the population aged 60 and over, typically considered retirement age, is expected to grow significantly, reaching over 400 million by 2035, up from approximately 280 million, as reported by Taipei Times.
Taipei Times further reported that demographers emphasize that the challenges go beyond policy changes. Yun Zhou, a sociologist at the University of Michigan, pointed out that without significant structural reforms, including better social safety nets and addressing gender inequality, the population decline is unlikely to reverse. This trend poses a growing risk to China's economy, as a shrinking workforce and consumer base threaten economic growth.