Taipei [Taiwan], November 23 : A recent war simulation conducted by a US congressional committee and a think tank has found that Taiwan would have to defend itself for at least a month or possibly two in the event of a Chinese invasion before the US could send reinforcements, Taiwan News reported.
The simulation, held by the US House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), aimed to assess the potential consequences of a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
CSIS defence expert Mark Cancian, who led the simulation, stated that Taiwan's mountainous terrain makes it difficult to invade, adding that the mountainous island only has two relatively narrow coastal corridors, making Taiwan a "difficult island to capture," Taiwan News reported citing CNA.
Further, Cancian stated that Taiwan's troops are stationed in the north, which is also a major industrial hub. He said this creates a 'strategic dilemma for China'.
Higlighting some of the possibilities, the defence expert noted "One option is for China to attack from the north "into the teeth of the Taiwanese defences" but close to the capital city Taipei. Its other option is to assault the south which is easier to land troops," adding that if the People's Liberation Army (PLA) attempted to land in the north, it would face strong resistance," emphasising it would be "tough for China to capture Taipei."
The simulation, which was modelled after the Allied campaign in Italy during World War II, envisioned a scenario in which battles progress "river line by river line, ridge line by ridge line." If China opts for an invasion from the south, Cancion said the PLA must rapidly capture a port or airfield.
He said this is because the US and Japan would team up to target China's amphibious ships. If these vessels are destroyed, the PLA would be unable to supply its troops in Taiwan, as per Taiwan News.
However, Cancian added in most scenarios, US and Japanese forces emerged victorious in the simulation but at a high cost. He said that US attempts to reinforce Taiwan would initially be thwarted as aircraft would be shot down and amphibious forces could not break through China's tight blockade around Taiwan.
Noting that this situation would be different from the Russo-Ukrainian War. He pointed out that the US and its allies have been able to send equipment into western Ukraine by land, but this would be much more difficult as Taiwan is an island country.
As Chinese forces would quickly surround Taiwan, Cancian estimated it would take three or four weeks before the US could break through the blockade. He predicted, "Taiwan would have to fight at least the first month, and maybe the first two months, with whatever it starts out with."
"I think the most effective thing you could do is to give Taiwan 500 Harpoon missiles," said Cancian. He added these missiles could be mounted on mobile launchers, enabling Taiwan to strike Chinese vessels within range without requiring US ground forces.